A very recent New Hampshire poll (#66) highlights the impact medicinal cannabis could have in the 2004 presidential election. Vermont Governor Howard Dean is apparently considering a run for the presidency on the 2004 Democratic ticket. A bill that would protect seriously ill patients from arrest if they grow and use their own marijuana with the approval of their physician is being debated by the Vermont legislature. One New Hampshire polling question asked respondents whether they would be more or less likely to vote for Governor Dean for president if he signs the Vermont medical marijuana bill. About 30% of survey respondents say they would be "much more likely" to vote for him, while 20% said they would be "much less likely" to do so. When the "somewhat" percentages are added, the split becomes roughly 50% "more likely" versus 33% "less likely." Looking at just the Democrats, though, the combined "more likely" number rises to over 70%. But, while almost 40% of GOP respondents would be "more likely" to vote for Governor Dean for President if he signs the Vermont bill, 50% would be "less likely," with the party’s conservative core at 33% "much less likely." This issue "makes no difference" to only 16% of New Hampshire voters.

The Vermont medicinal marijuana legislation is particularly significant because Governor Dean strongly opposes it. To unify his party for a national campaign, a presidential candidate cannot take a stance that reflects the views of no more than 10% of his own party, that is largely favored by his opposition, and that, from numerous surveys, lacks significant public support.

Other political races, such as those for the governor of states like Ohio, California, and Wisconsin, may represent additional opportunities for parties to solidify their political base behind an issue that is of great interest to so many of their members and the public.