To illustrate possible vote redistribution based on the strength of the medicinal marijuana vote, two simple models have been developed, one for the Democrats and one for the Republicans. Using an easy-to-understand concept like the 80/20 rule, this model shows possible vote migration to either of the major political parties based on their endorsement of medical marijuana and the strength of voter support for the issue as illustrated by the average ratings for Question 2 of the Ten State Poll (#56-65). (Please see Appendix I, Appendix II, and Appendix VII)

This model is based on voter turnout for a major election such as a presidential or governor’s race in a larger state like Ohio -- around 3.5 million. The percentage party split among the Democrats (33%), Republicans (24%), and Independents/Other (17%), as determined by the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, is then applied to this number. Because the Center’s percentages reflect all eligible voters, "No Party Affiliation" represents those in states that do not require party registration.

Strength of support assumes that voters who feel strongly about an issue are more likely to act on it. Consequently, applying the simple 80/20 rule, 80% of those who feel "very strongly" about an issue may cast their ballot according to it, while perhaps only 20% of those feel "somewhat strongly" will do the same. Applying this concept to the two models and using the Democratic Party model (Appendix I) as an example, eighty percent of the 39.1% of Republicans who are "much more likely" to cast their ballot for candidates who endorse medicinal cannabis will switch parties to vote for the Democrat (262,752), but only 20% of their "somewhat less likely" counterparts will do the same (34,944). For the purpose of the model, this logic applies to both sides of the issue.

The model clearly shows that the strength of support for medicinal cannabis makes it a winning issue for the major political party that endorses it. While the Democratic Party would come out slightly ahead of the Republican Party with such a position, both parties would gain a substantial plurality of the voting populace. Interestingly, if the Republicans were to take the lead on medicinal cannabis, assuming the Democrats stayed with its prohibition, they would only lose about 17% of their party members to the Democrats, while at the same time gaining almost 50% of the Democratic vote. On the other hand, if the Democrats back medical marijuana and the Republicans do not, the Democrats stand to lose only 8% of their own vote, but gain 35% of the Republican vote. With lower overall registration, the actual damage to the Republicans could be greater.